Has the “12‑Day War” Ended? What’s Next for Iran, Israel & America?
2025-Jun-24
Iran‑Israel‑USA Conflict Update – June 24, 2025
1. Ceasefire Confusion
-
President Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” between Iran and Israel, set to begin June 24, with Iran halting operations first followed by Israel 12 hours later. He credited Qatar with brokering the agreement.
-
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi immediately denied any formal agreement, stressing that Tehran would only stop its attacks if Israel did first.
-
Despite the supposed ceasefire, Iran launched another missile barrage at Israeli cities—Beersheba saw at least four fatalities and eight injuries—shortly after the supposed pause began.
2. Military Actions by All Sides
🇺🇸 United States
-
Executed Operation Midnight Hammer, featuring bunker‑buster and Tomahawk strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
-
Did not retaliate directly after Iran’s symbolic missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on June 23, which caused no casualties.
-
Deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean as strategic leverage .
🇮🇱 Israel
-
Carried out airstrikes on Tehran, including Evin Prison, IRGC facilities, and nuclear sites .
-
Conducted covert Mossad drone & sabotage operations inside Iran targeting missile infrastructure.
-
Continued limited operations despite the ceasefire claims, awaiting full confirmation.
🇮🇷 Iran
-
Fired multiple ballistic missile volleys into Israel, killing civilians in Beersheba.
-
Retaliated with a missile strike on Al Udeid US Base in Qatar—six missiles launched, all intercepted; no damage or casualties.
-
Passed a parliamentary resolution to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, pending top‑level approval—a move threatening global oil markets.
-
Continued to press Europe & Russia to resume the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), though momentum is collapsing amid hostilities.
3. Regional and Global Impact
-
Oil markets responded to threatened Hormuz closure and reduced risky premium after ceasefire claims; prices swung but remain unstable .
-
Civilian toll: Around 974 Iranians and 24 Israelis killed since mid-June; thousands injured on both sides.
-
Human displacement: Thousands fled Tehran after airstrikes; refugee flow to northern Iran.
-
International reactions: Russia warned the strikes jeopardize nuclear non‑proliferation talks; UN urged urgent de-escalation .
4. What to Watch Next
| Factor | Key Questions |
|---|---|
| Ceasefire integrity | Will Iran and Israel formally confirm and abide by the terms? |
| Iran’s stance | Will Iran ultimately pause attacks if Israel stops? Will it close the Strait? |
| U.S. posture | Could the U.S. conduct further strikes or pivot toward diplomacy? |
| Global ripple effects | Will markets remain stable? Will nuclear deal talks resume or be abandoned? |
Final Overview
As of June 24, 2025, the trumpeted ceasefire remains fragile with ongoing skirmishes, civilian casualties, and strategic posturing. Iran’s hostility, Israel’s conditional engagement, and U.S. military and diplomatic maneuvers make this a volatile stand-off. The coming 48 hours will be decisive for whether the "12‑Day War" gives way to true calm—or erupts anew.